What Drove the Decline in U.S. Teen Childbearing? A Cross-Cohort Decomposition

Abstract

The U.S. teen birth rate has fallen by 80 percent since 1991, and lower birth rates before age 20 account for more than half of the fall in total fertility over the same period. By birth cohort, early first births rose before they fell: 31 percent of women born in 1962–1966 had a first birth by age 21, 33 percent of those born in 1976–1980 and 23 percent of those born in 1992–1996. To find which forces lie behind both movements, I estimate a life-cycle model of schooling, work, marriage and contraceptive use on three cohorts of women and decompose the change in early childbearing into the value of avoiding a birth, the cost and efficacy of contraception, exposure, abortion, the marriage market, the safety net and family background. Less sexual activity, more effective methods and a lower cost of contraception account for 56 percent of the fall in births at ages 15–19 between women born in 1976–80 and 1992–96 (25, 14 and 17 percent), better earnings and schooling prospects for 25 percent, and better-educated mothers for 12 percent. The early births that better fertility control removed were unintended and were not had later: completed fertility falls by 0.25 births per woman, about twice the reduction in early births. The part of the decline due to fertility control was a fall in completed fertility, not a postponement.

Agustin Diaz Casanueva

Senior Economist

I study how households make economic decisions about consumption, fertility, and labor supply in response to shocks and policy changes.