The Effect of Cognitive Skills on Fertility Timing

Abstract

This paper studies how cognitive skills shape the timing of first birth and quantifies the mechanisms behind the steep ability gradient in teen childbearing. In the NLSY79, by ages 14-17, 28% of women in the bottom AFQT quartile have a first birth versus 3% in the top quartile, and mean age at first birth differs by 5.4 years. I estimate a dynamic life-cycle model in which schooling, marriage, labor supply, and contraceptive effort are jointly chosen. The model matches the difference in teen birth and shows that opportunity costs alone are insufficient: allowing ability to raise the effectiveness of contraceptive effort is key for fit. Counterfactuals imply large effects of improved fertility control: equalizing contraception frictions to those faced by high-ability teens reduces pregnancies before age 18 by 52.7% and increases college attendance by 19.8%; aligning both contraception and schooling opportunities raises college attendance by 45.2% and reduces early pregnancies by 60.0%. Welfare gains from improved fertility control are concentrated among low-ability women.

Agustin Diaz Casanueva

Economist

I study how households make economic decisions about consumption, fertility, and labor supply in response to shocks and policy changes.